Realtors say Naples market stable; Financial website predicts local housing collapse
Inventory is down, demand is up and the Naples real estate market continues to stabilize, according to a report released Friday by the Naples Area Board of Realtors tracking home listings and sales. At the same time, a financial reporting website — 24/7 Wall Street — is predicting the housing market in Naples is ready for a collapse.
Douglas McIntyre, one of the website editors and co-writers of the article published on Friday, said his study compared real estate activity in 380 U.S. cities using government data and Fiserv Case-Shiller Indexes, which track real estate activity.
The article ranked Naples the No. 1 market in the country likely to collapse, with home values predicted to drop an additional 16.6 percent, or nearly $40,000 by 2012. Part of the reason for the predicted drop is the area’s relatively high unemployment rate. McIntyre couldn’t say what his study means for local home buyers, sellers and investors. However, local Realtors disagree with the 24/7 Wall Street prediction.
“As far as Naples is concerned, they are off track,” said Brenda Fioretti, NABOR president and managing broker of Prudential Florida Realty. “The information is very inconsistent with our statistics.”
The available inventory in July is 7,010 properties, down from 8,731 properties in July 2010.
“Inventory continues to drop at a rate of 19 percent for this period and we currently have less than nine months of inventory, which is the lowest we have seen since tracking the available inventory in April 2007,” Fioretti said in a statement.
Tom Doyle, Realtor with SunRealty, echoed NABOR officials.
“It’s totally invalid,” Doyle said of the 24/7 Wall Street study. “It’s based upon a math equation.”
Doyle said Naples is a second home market, not a retirement community, which was not included in the 24/7 Wall Street article.
“The article did not consider all the dynamics in our real estate market, such as our inventory in homes,” he said.
Doyle said articles like 24/7 Wall Street’s will raise some concerns, but people should not worry since the real estate inventory is down and prices are bouncing up. NABOR officials questioned where and how the financial reporting website got its information.
Mike Hughes, a vice president with both NABOR and Downing-Frye Realty in Naples, also disagreed with the 24/7 Wall Street prediction because the inventory of real estate is low and the demand is high.
Downing-Frye Realty closed more than 2,100 home sales for the first seven months of the year, which is more business than they did in 2007 and 2008, Hughes said.
Pending sales, inventory and the median closed price are key indicators of real estate stability during challenging economic times, according to the NABOR report. In July, there were 776 total pending sales, reflecting new contracts written for homes and condos, up 2 percent from 760 last July, according to the NABOR report.
“I’m very encouraged that our inventory continues to stay low,” Hughes said. “Right now, it’s shaping out to be a very strong summer for sales.”
Overall closing sales fell by 1 percent to 8,110, down from 8,158 last year in the 12 months ending in July.
In the 12 months ending in July, overall pending sales increased 3 percent with 10,030 contracts, compared to 9,785 during the same period last year.
NABOR’s report tracks sales made through the Naples association’s multiple listing service, or MLS, in Collier County, excluding Marco Island.
“The fact that we are not seeing volatility in the residential real estate market is positive,” Tom Bringardner, president and CEO of Premier Commercial Inc. said in a statement. “Home prices and sales are level but seem to be trending upward, inventory is declining, the average days on the market are declining, all indicators of the stabilization process.”
- The median closed price for properties over $300,000 grew 2 percent to $550,000 for the 12 months ending in July, compared to $540,000 during the same period last year, according to a NABOR report. The median is the price at which half the homes sell for more and half for less.
- In the 12 months ending in July, there were 4,108 condo sales. That was up 3 percent from 3,995 condo sales in the previous year, which local Realtors view as another positive sign.
- Single-family home pending sales increased 3 percent to 447 contracts in July, up from 432 contracts in the same month the previous year.
- Pending sales in the Naples Beach area for the 12 months ending in July increased 12 percent with 1,747 contracts, up from 1,553 for the 12 months ending July of the previous year.
Source: naplesnews.com